Global stocks extended their recovery on Thursday, cheered by record closes in Wall Street benchmarks following encouraging economic data, and after China announced a cut in tariffs on some imported goods from the United States.
The tariff relief added to hopes the global economy may be able to avoid a major shock from China’s rapidly-spreading coronavirus, which has battered financial markets in recent weeks.
MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (MIAPJ0000PUS) jumped 1.66% while Japan’s Nikkei (N225) rose 2.38%. Mainland Chinese shares also reacted positively, with the bluechip CSI300 index (CSI300) up 1.97%.
European stocks are expected to enjoy a rally, with pan-European Euro Stoxx 50 futures (STXEc1) up 0.66%, German DAX futures (FDXc1) adding 0.73% and FTSE futures (FFIc1) gaining 0.63%.
U.S. stock futures (ESc1) rose 0.55% in Asia while China’s onshore yuan rose 0.2% to its strongest level since Jan. 23 after the tariff cuts were announced.
China said on Thursday it will halve tariffs on some U.S. goods, which could help improve negotiating conditions for a second phase of trade deal after the two countries signed off on a interim deal last month.
“Under the phase 1 deal, China has to meet a tough target to increase U.S. import by $100 billion this year, so a measure like this was necessary and expected,” said Tomo-o Kinoshita, global market strategist at Invesco Asset Management.
“But at the same time, that they did this now points to their desire to support Chinese companies as the coronavirus epidemic will obviously deal a huge blow to China’s growth,” he added.
Mainland shares have also drawn support from Beijing’s efforts to support the market amid heightened anxieties about the coronavirus, including liquidity injections and de facto restrictions on selling.
“It is difficult for investors to sell Chinese shares now given the authorities’ stance is very clear,” said Naoki Tashiro, president of TS China Research.
“Still, until the spread of the virus stops, market stabilization steps won’t completely change investor psychology.”
On Wall Street, far from the epicenter of the outbreak, the mood was brighter as the S&P 500 (SPX) gained 1.13% to a record close of 3,334.69 while the Nasdaq Composite (IXIC) added 0.43% to 9,508.68, also a record high.
The ADP (NASDAQ:ADP) National Employment Report showed private payrolls jumped 291,000 jobs in January, the most since May 2015, while a separate report showed U.S. services sector activity picked up last month. Both indicators suggest the economy could continue to grow this year even as consumer spending slows.
Traders also cited vague rumors of a possible vaccine or a drug breakthrough for the coronavirus as a trigger for Wednesday’s stock rally, although they said such catalysts were likely to simply be an excuse for short-covering.
The World Health Organization also played down media reports on Wednesday of “breakthrough” drugs being discovered to treat those infected with the virus.
Another 73 people on the Chinese mainland died on Wednesday from the virus, the highest daily increase so far, bringing the total death toll to 563, the country’s health authority said on Thursday.
“Despite all the efforts by the Communist Party, the virus is becoming a major global disaster. Considering workers usually start to return to hometown about a week before the Lunar New Year, many patients must have left Wuhan before its lockdown on Jan. 23,” TS China Research’s Tashiro said.
Statistics from China indicate that about 2% of people infected with the new virus have died, suggesting it may be deadlier than seasonal flu but less deadly than SARS, another reason investors remained relatively calm.
GRAPHIC: Daily cumulative cases of coronavirus – https://graphics.reuters.com/CHINA-HEALTH/0100B56G2WC/coronavirus.jpg
“The coronavirus is continuing to spread so we need to remain cautious. But markets now appear to think that there will be a quick economic recovery after a short-term slump,” said Masahiro Ichikawa, senior strategist at Sumitomo Mitsui DS Asset Management.
The 10-year U.S. Treasuries yield rose back to 1.672% (US10YT=RR) from a five-month low of 1.503% set last Friday.
In the currency market, the yuan gained 0.2% to 6.9600 per dollar in onshore trade while the Australian dollar rose 0.2% to $0.6758 .
The safe-haven yen stepped back to 109.94 yen , compared with a three-week high of 108.305 hit on Friday.
The euro stood flat at $1.0998 (EUR=).
In commodities, U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude (CLc1) gained 2.66% to $52.10 per barrel, extending its rebound from a 13-month low of $49.31 touched on Tuesday.
Still it is down about 15% so far this year.
Copper, considered a good gauge on the health of the global economy because of its wide industrial use, showed some signs of stabilization although it remained depressed overall.
Shanghai copper (SCFc1) extended its rebound into the third day, rising 1% from 33-month low hit earlier this week. It is about 5% below its levels just before the start of Lunar New Year holidays.
“One has to wonder whether China can meet its trade agreement with the U.S. to increase imports by $200 billion (in two years), which looked very difficult to begin with,” said a manager at a U.S. asset management firm, who declined to be named because he is not authorized to speak about China.
“Before the outbreak, a mini goldilocks market was everyone’s consensus. But we have to see whether we need to change such a view,” he added.
